Ask HN: For employees, is picking a good early startup more luck than skill?
I've read blogs and accounts of people joining early stage startups as employees and then seeing the startup go big, either by getting lots of growth and funding, or they become acquired by a billion dollar company. I'm sure it's survivorship bias, since who knows how many startup failures are there (and I think having some of that bias is healthy for aspiring business founders). But when that person joined after being at only one or two companies in their entire career, and then they just happened to join the right company even when it was early stage (when things are most speculative), it feels too good to be true. Did these people end up just being smart enough to predict the winners more easily, and then choosing a job offer from them? Or is it mostly luck at the early stage? I've been at five different early stage companies. Today, two of those still exist and not making much more revenue. One is because they're a web agency and not really set to be a huge company. And the other is a startup that seems to be in the same place it was, either spinning their wheel or rather its growth is not very rapid, and still is not really making headlines, four years after leaving the company. I feel like I'm doing the startup thing wrong, like assuming it's mostly luck. When I browse Angel.co picking companies that might be interesting to me, I feel like it's just rolling the dice. Is this a correct assumption? Or is there more skill than I take credit for, and I simply lack enough business acumen to make a well educated decision to pick future winners from losers? 1 comments on Hacker News.
I've read blogs and accounts of people joining early stage startups as employees and then seeing the startup go big, either by getting lots of growth and funding, or they become acquired by a billion dollar company. I'm sure it's survivorship bias, since who knows how many startup failures are there (and I think having some of that bias is healthy for aspiring business founders). But when that person joined after being at only one or two companies in their entire career, and then they just happened to join the right company even when it was early stage (when things are most speculative), it feels too good to be true. Did these people end up just being smart enough to predict the winners more easily, and then choosing a job offer from them? Or is it mostly luck at the early stage? I've been at five different early stage companies. Today, two of those still exist and not making much more revenue. One is because they're a web agency and not really set to be a huge company. And the other is a startup that seems to be in the same place it was, either spinning their wheel or rather its growth is not very rapid, and still is not really making headlines, four years after leaving the company. I feel like I'm doing the startup thing wrong, like assuming it's mostly luck. When I browse Angel.co picking companies that might be interesting to me, I feel like it's just rolling the dice. Is this a correct assumption? Or is there more skill than I take credit for, and I simply lack enough business acumen to make a well educated decision to pick future winners from losers?
I've read blogs and accounts of people joining early stage startups as employees and then seeing the startup go big, either by getting lots of growth and funding, or they become acquired by a billion dollar company. I'm sure it's survivorship bias, since who knows how many startup failures are there (and I think having some of that bias is healthy for aspiring business founders). But when that person joined after being at only one or two companies in their entire career, and then they just happened to join the right company even when it was early stage (when things are most speculative), it feels too good to be true. Did these people end up just being smart enough to predict the winners more easily, and then choosing a job offer from them? Or is it mostly luck at the early stage? I've been at five different early stage companies. Today, two of those still exist and not making much more revenue. One is because they're a web agency and not really set to be a huge company. And the other is a startup that seems to be in the same place it was, either spinning their wheel or rather its growth is not very rapid, and still is not really making headlines, four years after leaving the company. I feel like I'm doing the startup thing wrong, like assuming it's mostly luck. When I browse Angel.co picking companies that might be interesting to me, I feel like it's just rolling the dice. Is this a correct assumption? Or is there more skill than I take credit for, and I simply lack enough business acumen to make a well educated decision to pick future winners from losers? 1 comments on Hacker News.
I've read blogs and accounts of people joining early stage startups as employees and then seeing the startup go big, either by getting lots of growth and funding, or they become acquired by a billion dollar company. I'm sure it's survivorship bias, since who knows how many startup failures are there (and I think having some of that bias is healthy for aspiring business founders). But when that person joined after being at only one or two companies in their entire career, and then they just happened to join the right company even when it was early stage (when things are most speculative), it feels too good to be true. Did these people end up just being smart enough to predict the winners more easily, and then choosing a job offer from them? Or is it mostly luck at the early stage? I've been at five different early stage companies. Today, two of those still exist and not making much more revenue. One is because they're a web agency and not really set to be a huge company. And the other is a startup that seems to be in the same place it was, either spinning their wheel or rather its growth is not very rapid, and still is not really making headlines, four years after leaving the company. I feel like I'm doing the startup thing wrong, like assuming it's mostly luck. When I browse Angel.co picking companies that might be interesting to me, I feel like it's just rolling the dice. Is this a correct assumption? Or is there more skill than I take credit for, and I simply lack enough business acumen to make a well educated decision to pick future winners from losers?
Hacker News story: Ask HN: For employees, is picking a good early startup more luck than skill?
![Hacker News story: Ask HN: For employees, is picking a good early startup more luck than skill?]()
Reviewed by Tha Kur
on
June 30, 2018
Rating:
No comments: