Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?
Source [1]. Note that I don't subscribe to conspiracy theories so I will focus only on non-political information. I hope someone one the field can fact-check the information presented and correct any interpretation mistakes on my part: - The test that is currently used was not extensively validated and quickly accepted by WHO due to urgency. This raises the following questions: - Is it possible that we are seeing false positives, where people with flu-like symptoms are wrongly identified as having SARS-CoV-2? - Are we certain that the test is implemented correctly everywhere? - To find infection/death rates, are we doing tests on the whole population, or only on certain groups, such as people that went to hospitals feeling cold symptoms? - Is it possible that infection rates are higher than normal because more people are going to hospitals (due to widespread panic), and thus get infected more easily than if they had treated common cold symptoms at home? - Are the flu deaths increasing because of the coronavirus? Consider this: - In Germany, between 20000 and 30000 people die yearly from flu, mostly on winter. - Assume that in previous years we tested all seriously ill patients for coronavirus (which didn't happen). In this scenario, where we tested everyone, it is expected that between 2000 and 3000 of the dead would also have a coronavirus (which doesn't imply they died because of coronavirus). - Due to panic, more people are filling the hospital beds, possibly leaving the really sick without proper care, thus increasing deaths. - In Germany, there are currently 33 deaths attributed to coronavirus, nowhere near the expected number. Note that Germany has considerably more hospital beds than Italy [2]. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_AyuhbnPOI [2] https://ift.tt/2QmoDrD 61 comments on Hacker News.
Source [1]. Note that I don't subscribe to conspiracy theories so I will focus only on non-political information. I hope someone one the field can fact-check the information presented and correct any interpretation mistakes on my part: - The test that is currently used was not extensively validated and quickly accepted by WHO due to urgency. This raises the following questions: - Is it possible that we are seeing false positives, where people with flu-like symptoms are wrongly identified as having SARS-CoV-2? - Are we certain that the test is implemented correctly everywhere? - To find infection/death rates, are we doing tests on the whole population, or only on certain groups, such as people that went to hospitals feeling cold symptoms? - Is it possible that infection rates are higher than normal because more people are going to hospitals (due to widespread panic), and thus get infected more easily than if they had treated common cold symptoms at home? - Are the flu deaths increasing because of the coronavirus? Consider this: - In Germany, between 20000 and 30000 people die yearly from flu, mostly on winter. - Assume that in previous years we tested all seriously ill patients for coronavirus (which didn't happen). In this scenario, where we tested everyone, it is expected that between 2000 and 3000 of the dead would also have a coronavirus (which doesn't imply they died because of coronavirus). - Due to panic, more people are filling the hospital beds, possibly leaving the really sick without proper care, thus increasing deaths. - In Germany, there are currently 33 deaths attributed to coronavirus, nowhere near the expected number. Note that Germany has considerably more hospital beds than Italy [2]. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_AyuhbnPOI [2] https://ift.tt/2QmoDrD
Source [1]. Note that I don't subscribe to conspiracy theories so I will focus only on non-political information. I hope someone one the field can fact-check the information presented and correct any interpretation mistakes on my part: - The test that is currently used was not extensively validated and quickly accepted by WHO due to urgency. This raises the following questions: - Is it possible that we are seeing false positives, where people with flu-like symptoms are wrongly identified as having SARS-CoV-2? - Are we certain that the test is implemented correctly everywhere? - To find infection/death rates, are we doing tests on the whole population, or only on certain groups, such as people that went to hospitals feeling cold symptoms? - Is it possible that infection rates are higher than normal because more people are going to hospitals (due to widespread panic), and thus get infected more easily than if they had treated common cold symptoms at home? - Are the flu deaths increasing because of the coronavirus? Consider this: - In Germany, between 20000 and 30000 people die yearly from flu, mostly on winter. - Assume that in previous years we tested all seriously ill patients for coronavirus (which didn't happen). In this scenario, where we tested everyone, it is expected that between 2000 and 3000 of the dead would also have a coronavirus (which doesn't imply they died because of coronavirus). - Due to panic, more people are filling the hospital beds, possibly leaving the really sick without proper care, thus increasing deaths. - In Germany, there are currently 33 deaths attributed to coronavirus, nowhere near the expected number. Note that Germany has considerably more hospital beds than Italy [2]. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_AyuhbnPOI [2] https://ift.tt/2QmoDrD 61 comments on Hacker News.
Source [1]. Note that I don't subscribe to conspiracy theories so I will focus only on non-political information. I hope someone one the field can fact-check the information presented and correct any interpretation mistakes on my part: - The test that is currently used was not extensively validated and quickly accepted by WHO due to urgency. This raises the following questions: - Is it possible that we are seeing false positives, where people with flu-like symptoms are wrongly identified as having SARS-CoV-2? - Are we certain that the test is implemented correctly everywhere? - To find infection/death rates, are we doing tests on the whole population, or only on certain groups, such as people that went to hospitals feeling cold symptoms? - Is it possible that infection rates are higher than normal because more people are going to hospitals (due to widespread panic), and thus get infected more easily than if they had treated common cold symptoms at home? - Are the flu deaths increasing because of the coronavirus? Consider this: - In Germany, between 20000 and 30000 people die yearly from flu, mostly on winter. - Assume that in previous years we tested all seriously ill patients for coronavirus (which didn't happen). In this scenario, where we tested everyone, it is expected that between 2000 and 3000 of the dead would also have a coronavirus (which doesn't imply they died because of coronavirus). - Due to panic, more people are filling the hospital beds, possibly leaving the really sick without proper care, thus increasing deaths. - In Germany, there are currently 33 deaths attributed to coronavirus, nowhere near the expected number. Note that Germany has considerably more hospital beds than Italy [2]. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_AyuhbnPOI [2] https://ift.tt/2QmoDrD
Hacker News story: Ask HN: Are we overreacting to coronavirus?
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March 19, 2020
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